Decomposition of energy production and consumption trends

Policymakers required a deeper understanding of the drivers behind changes in energy production and consumption to support evidence-based energy and climate policies. A key constraint was that all analyses had to rely exclusively on official statistics, ensuring transparency, reproducibility and full alignment with European institutional standards. Existing aggregated indicators did not allow decision-makers to disentangle the respective roles of activity levels, structural changes, efficiency improvements and fuel choices.

Artemis developed a robust and transparent decomposition methodology based solely on publicly available official data from the European Commission and other European institutions. The work covered both total energy consumption and sector-specific analyses, allowing a detailed breakdown of underlying drivers. Artemis also designed a user-friendly tool using R enabling automated calculations and graphical visualisation of results, facilitating reuse and replication by analysts.

The project delivered a consistent analytical framework applied across countries, with individual country reports produced and shared with each country, documenting results and methodology used. A statistical working paper was produced to formally describe the methodology and analytical choices.
In addition, the work resulted in a peer-reviewed publication in the Statistical Journal of the IAOS (SJIAOS), strengthening scientific dissemination and credibility. The project was completed with 700 expert work-days, significantly reinforcing analytical capacity for official energy statistics and policy analysis.